Global Heat Pump Sales Continue To Grow Rapidly

The sales volume of the global heat pump market increased by 13% in 2021 and 11% in 2022. Based on the current growth rate, the share of heat pumps in building heating will nearly double by 2030.

In 2022, China sold the world's largest number of heat pump units, with a heating growth rate of over 20% and a sales volume of over 1 million water heaters. About 40% of the global heat pumps are manufactured in China, making China the world's largest producer and exporter.

Please refer to the original text as much as possible for software translation——According to the latest IEA analysis, global heat pump sales have increased by 11% by 2022, marking the second consecutive year of double-digit growth in the core technology of the world's transition to safe and sustainable heating.

Annual growth rate of global and specific market heat pump sales in 2021 and 2022 picture

Given the high prices of natural gas and efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, increasing policy support and incentives for heat pumps is a key driving factor behind strong growth. In Europe, heat pumps have reached a historic high, with sales growth of nearly 40%. Especially, the sales of air to water models compatible with typical radiators and floor heating systems in Europe have increased by nearly 50%. In the United States, the purchase of heat pumps exceeds that of gas stoves. However, in China, the world's largest heat pump market, sales remain stable despite a general economic slowdown.

On a global scale, heat pumps, as the main heating equipment, can meet approximately 10% of the heating needs of buildings today. This is equivalent to over 100 million households, which means that one in ten households that require a lot of heating today are serviced by heat pumps. However, more households only use heat pumps during some parts of the winter, or use them as auxiliary heating sources in areas where heat pumps are mainly used for building cooling.

In order to align with all existing national energy and climate commitments globally, heat pumps must meet nearly 20% of the global building heating needs by 2030. If new devices continue to grow at a similar rate, the world is almost expected to reach this milestone globally, as in the past two years. However, if the world is to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, sales will need to increase by more than 15% annually over the past decade.

The installation of heat pumps is still concentrated in new buildings and existing single family residences. If stable growth is to continue, multi-storey apartment buildings and commercial spaces will need to become priority areas. Energy efficiency improvements also need to be accelerated to ensure that new heat pumps installed in existing buildings are as efficient and not too large as possible. This will reduce consumers' upfront and operational costs, and reduce the pressure on the power system, especially if combined with intelligent control to achieve flexible operation.

Sales of heat pumps in Europe surged to new records

Throughout Europe, nearly 3 million heat pumps were sold in 2022, an increase of nearly 40% compared to the previous year. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has driven this trend, as natural gas and electricity prices have significantly increased, encouraging consumers to switch to heat pumps that are more efficient than traditional heating technologies.

Sales ratio of heat pumps and fossil fuel based building heating systems in selected countries/regions in 2021 and 2022 picture

Last year, the European Commission also announced a plan to double the deployment rate of heat pumps, as outlined in the International Energy Agency's initial 10 point plan to reduce the EU's dependence on Russian natural gas Most EU countries provide fiscal incentives to achieve this goal. The accelerated launch of heat pumps will also make significant contributions to the broader decarbonization goals of the European Union and improve the air quality of coal-fired and oil-fired boilers that have been replaced. The size of some emerging markets such as Poland and the Czech Republic doubled last year, although Italy, France, and Germany account for almost half of all sales in Europe. In northern Europe, heat pumps are a long-standing heating solution, with unit sales per household almost five times that of other regions in Europe.

In terms of new sales, Nordic and Baltic countries have the highest share of air to air units, accounting for approximately 50% to 80% of installed capacity. Similarly, the purchase volume of such equipment in southern Europe is also high. In Germany and Poland, air to water heat pumps are the preferred technology. For example, hybrid systems that combine heat pumps with gas boilers are popular in Italy, accounting for over 40% of air to water sales by 2022. Geothermal heat pump and water source heat pump are the most popular and efficient models - and the most expensive. The demand for drilling engineering and additional space means that they currently account for less than 10% of European sales.

In France, the sales of heat pumps surpassed fossil fuel boilers in buildings for the first time in 2022, coinciding with the country's first year of banning the use of gas boilers in new buildings. Although the demand for fossil fuel boilers in other major European countries is decreasing, their market share is still higher than that of heat pumps. For example, in Germany and Italy, the sales of fossil fuel boilers in 2022 were twice that of heat pumps. At the same time, some have proposed phasing out the most polluting technologies and fuels. The German government's plan indicates that starting from 2024, new heating systems must be primarily based on renewable energy. Throughout Europe, seventeen countries have implemented or announced bans on the installation of boilers that exclusively use certain forms of fossil fuels.

Asia and North America are key players in the global heat pump market

The heat pump currently installed in North America for building heating has the largest capacity. In the United States, heat pump sales surpassed gas furnace sales in 2022 after years of almost flat growth. Most residential units in the country are air to air models in ducted air systems. These are larger than those commonly used in Asia, where there is usually one unit per room. Although most heat pumps are still installed in single family homes in the United States, the number of apartments using heat pumps as the main heating technology more than doubled between 2015 and 2020 In recent years, manufacturers have developed specialized heat pumps that can work efficiently in cold climates to accelerate deployment in these regions of the United States. By 2020, less than 5% of households will be using this technology for heating.

Despite a slowdown in sales growth, China sold more heat pump units in 2022 than any other country. In northern China, district heating remains the most common heating solution in cities, but many households also install heat pumps to cool their spaces and provide additional heating from time to time. In southern China, where winter is relatively mild, air to air reversible units are a common solution for space heating, although sales have remained stagnant in recent years.

Although the dc inverter air to water heat pump mainly used for heating has a relatively small market share in China, its growth rate will exceed 20% in 2022. The sales of air to water heat pump water heaters have remained stable at over 1 million units. About 40% of the global heat pumps are manufactured in China, making China the largest producer and exporter of this technology, with the majority exported to Europe.

In Japan and South Korea, sales of air to air heat pumps have remained stable in 2022, as most of the equipment sold is to replace existing devices, which are typically one-third less efficient than new models. More than 90% of households in Japan are already equipped with air heat pumps for space heating and cooling. However, two-thirds of households are still using other appliances, such as kerosene or electric heaters, to provide additional heat when needed. The demand for heat pumps that provide hot water in Japan is rapidly increasing, with over 8.5 million units sold since the launch of the EcoCute model in the early 2000s. In South Korea, geothermal and water source heat pumps are expanding their market segments driven by fiscal incentives.

In Australia and New Zealand, air to air heat pump is already the most common source of heating. Due to the improvement of efficiency, the market penetration rate has increased in cold regions.

Heat pumps are still largely absent in the heating market in parts of Central Asia and Eastern Europe, with upfront costs still being the main obstacle, and many households are connected to regional heating networks. However, large-scale heat pumps are an effective choice for decarbonization of these networks, which still heavily rely on fossil fuels today.

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